October 17, 2010
Black Swan
The idea of relying on faith, not reason, is known as fideism
NED: no evidence of disease vs. END: evidence of no disease
A thousand days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you wrong
Searching for weaknesses vs confirming truths makes you great (vs good).
Memory is like a self serving dynamic revision machine: you remember the last time you remembered the event and, without realizing it, change the story at every subsequent rememberence.
Could it be that (fiction) fables and stories are closer to the truth than is the thouroughly fact checked ABC news (nonfiction)?
Adding a "because" statement makes it more believable
Events that are non-repeatable are ignored before their occurance, and overestimated after (for a while).
"One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic" -- Stalin
We (incorrectly) respect what has happened and ignore what could have happened.
Fire hydrant test: the more information you give someone, the more hypotheses they will formulate along the way, and the worse off they will be.
The Three Princes of Serendip (Hugh Walpole). Serendipity is making discoveries by accident of things which they were not in quest of.
It is a contradiction to believe one can predict the future and believe in humans as living beings with "free will".
Be in business where positive black swans can benefit you (movies), not where negative black swans can destroy you (banking). What is the positive homerun? Lose small to make big. - page 207.
Pascals Wager: I do not know if God exists, but I know that I have nothing to gain from being an aethist if he does not exist, whereas I have plenty to lose if he does.
NED: no evidence of disease vs. END: evidence of no disease
A thousand days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you wrong
Searching for weaknesses vs confirming truths makes you great (vs good).
Memory is like a self serving dynamic revision machine: you remember the last time you remembered the event and, without realizing it, change the story at every subsequent rememberence.
Could it be that (fiction) fables and stories are closer to the truth than is the thouroughly fact checked ABC news (nonfiction)?
Adding a "because" statement makes it more believable
Events that are non-repeatable are ignored before their occurance, and overestimated after (for a while).
"One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic" -- Stalin
We (incorrectly) respect what has happened and ignore what could have happened.
Fire hydrant test: the more information you give someone, the more hypotheses they will formulate along the way, and the worse off they will be.
The Three Princes of Serendip (Hugh Walpole). Serendipity is making discoveries by accident of things which they were not in quest of.
It is a contradiction to believe one can predict the future and believe in humans as living beings with "free will".
Be in business where positive black swans can benefit you (movies), not where negative black swans can destroy you (banking). What is the positive homerun? Lose small to make big. - page 207.
Pascals Wager: I do not know if God exists, but I know that I have nothing to gain from being an aethist if he does not exist, whereas I have plenty to lose if he does.